Billy Wynne, writing in Health Affairs, presents five lessons from the failed launch of the American Health Care Act:
“Nothing is inevitable”
“There’s a difference between making a political statement and enacting real policy. The latter is invariably complex and time-consuming, creating vulnerabilities and pitfalls both known and unknown at the outset. While a cornerstone of tried and true policymaking is to leverage the ‘strategy of inevitability’—more than seven years ago, the ACA campaign itself vigorously deployed just such a strategy—the underlying premise of that strategy is always inherently false.’’
“Virtually every hospital and hospital group, every physician group, nurses, patient groups representing the young, old, disease-stricken, and disabled, and many others fervently opposed AHCA. They added analysis of AHCA’s impact on them, as governors did regarding its impact on their states. At the end of the day, this was simply a bad bill. Stakeholders figured it out and acted when it counted.’’
‘’Ultimately, on the day AHCA was originally supposed to get its final House vote, a Quinnipiac University poll came out showing only 17 percent of the public supported the bill, while 56 percent opposed it, a startling gap rarely seen in any bona fide political polling.’’
“The ACA stole most of the good conservative ideas’’
‘’While it was lambasted by Republicans as the manifestation of a Marxist dystopia, the truth of the ACA is that it is a very moderate law. …As Health Policy Counsel to then-Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus in the prelude to President Obama’s election, I know the pains he took to build bipartisan consensus. In 2008, he negotiated with Republican counterparts on reforming the market for small businesses, in what became the SHOP Act component of the ACA (drawing from legislation originally co-led by Republican Olympia Snowe). He convened an all-day, fully bipartisan Prepare to Launch summit to query experts and debate ideas. He released a series of white papers that laid out detailed policies he believed could gain bipartisan support (welcomed by the conservative Heritage Foundation as ‘a starting point for serious discussion’). And all of that was before President Obama was elected.”
‘’The centerpiece of the ACA became tax credits for the purchase of commercial—not government—health insurance, with a tax-driven mandate that everyone take responsibility for buying in. This had been the linchpin of numerous Republican health reform proposals prior to that time. While Medicaid expansion was also included, it took on a greater role only because that is a less costly way to expand coverage, and Democrats were utterly committed to ensuring the bill did not increase the deficit.”
‘’Other key conservative ideas were embedded in the law as well. Numerous new payment reforms were instituted to drive efficiency and lower costs; states were allowed to pool their markets (though notably none have yet); price and value transparency was instituted so consumers could compare their coverage options side-by-side; emphasis was placed on prevention and community health centers; states were free to run their own exchanges and establish their own essential health benefits; dozens of new program integrity and oversight protections were instituted.’’
“Tom Price is now the most important person in healthcare”
“While the Trump Administration has some more thinking to do before it commits to letting our health care system crash and burn, via sabotage or neglect, it certainly has that power. The locus of that power is the Department of Health and Human Services and its Secretary, former Republican Congressman Tom Price, M.D., a former orthopedic surgeon.
‘’As we have already seen, simple maneuvers like pulling publicity for HealthCare.gov and creating an aura of uncertainty can adversely impact insurance enrollment. Payment and delivery system reforms, intended to lower costs and improve quality, have been halted in their tracks. Governors have been informed that they are now freer to impose premiums and increase cost-sharing for Medicaid enrollees.
“As destabilizing as these changes are, they pale in comparison to some of the more nuclear options Secretary Price has at his disposal to wreak havoc on health care. Perhaps the foremost of these, and the one readily accessible at any moment, is the option to refrain from defending the cost-sharing subsidies.”
“Bipartisanship is still possible’’
“While not as expedient or gratifying to the inner ideologue inside us all, the long, frustrating work of compromise is the only viable path forward.
‘’There is a lot of lower-hanging fruit and we should give AHCA credit for bringing some of those to people’s attention. Insurers have now made clear what they think will help stabilize markets and perhaps make them more competitive, including funding risk corridor and reinsurance programs. Meanwhile, several start-up health plans are eyeing a wide array of markets where competition is limited and ripe for a lower-cost competitor. Some have faced obstacles at the state-level, undoubtedly due in part to the objections of entrenched interests. Can a Price-led HHS help open up these markets?’’