The American Association of Medical Colleges says that America will have a shortage of physicians of from 61,700 to 94,700 over the next decade.

This report updates a 2015 projection that estimated that the nation would need 46,100 to 90,400 more physicians by 2025, though that is   still below a 2010 estimate that projected a shortage of 130,600 physicians by 2025. (These ranges sure are wide!)

Becker’s Hospital Review says that “the year’s report uses the same microsimulation model and scenarios as used for last year’s projections, but it includes updates to supply and demand data and refined medical school graduate data, and it more fully integrates the effects of the growing ranks of physician assistants.”

“Perhaps most striking is the addition of an analysis on the needs of underserved Americans that shows how many more physicians the country would need if these patients were able to fully utilize healthcare. These numbers are not included in the overall projections because they only provide estimates for 2014 levels of care.”

But maybe even more surprising is that study found only small effects from the Affordable Care Act on physician demand.