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After the ACA repeal….

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Timothy Jost, writing in Health Affairs, comments on the possible effects of the Republicans repealing the Affordable Care Act. Among his remarks:

“The CBO  {Congressional Budget Office} projects that the repeal legislation would not have an immediate dramatic effect in 2017 because premium increases would already be established and enrollment set for 2017. In 2018, however, 18 million people would become uninsured, including 10 million fewer enrollees in the nongroup (or individual) insurance market, 5 million fewer with Medicaid coverage, and 3 million fewer with employment coverage. ”

“In the year following the repeal of the Medicaid expansions and premium tax credits, the number of people without health insurance would grow to 27 million, further increasing to 32 million by 2026. If Congress repealed the insurance reforms as well, the number of uninsured people would only grow to 21 million in the year following repeal and to 23 million by 2026 (although coverage would be less comprehensive and individuals with pre-existing conditions may be unable to find coverage). The increase in the uninsured of 32 million would be the net result of 23 million fewer nongroup market enrollees, 19 million fewer covered by Medicaid, and 11 million more enrolled in employer coverage. In total, 59 million would be uninsured; 21 percent of the population.’’

“CBO projects that the repeal of the individual mandate, premium tax credits, and Medicaid expansions would destabilize the nongroup market and that the destabilizing effects would worsen over time. In the first year after the repeal of the marketplace subsidies took place, nongroup market premiums would increase by 50 percent relative to current law projections and about half of the population would live in states with no insurer participation in the nongroup market. By 2026, nongroup market premiums would double and three-quarters of the population would live in states with no insurers in the nongroup market. Fewer than 2 million people would have nongroup market coverage.’’

To read his entire article, please hit this link.


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