“Idle Woman,” by Daniel Hernández Morillo
“Surprisingly, the most responsible thing to do right now about the forecasted insolvency of the Medicare Trust Fund is . . . nothing. Why? Because such projections are highly uncertain and we can make any necessary changes as we learn more over time.”
She notes: “Predicting the future of health care cost growth is notoriously difficult and small variations in assumptions about growth rates can lead to very large differences in long-term forecasts.
“There are really only three ways to control Medicare spending: cut expenditures, raise revenues, or shift a share of risks to beneficiaries by moving to a voucher or premium-support system. Our recent experience indicates it would be unwise to take any of these dramatic steps right now.”
